{"id":4274,"date":"2026-08-11T09:00:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T02:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/?p=4274"},"modified":"2026-08-11T08:59:15","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T01:59:15","slug":"correct-mathematically-not-necessarily-correct-evidentially","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/correct-mathematically-not-necessarily-correct-evidentially\/","title":{"rendered":"CORRECT MATHEMATICALLY, NOT NECESSARILY CORRECT EVIDENTIALLY"},"content":{"rendered":"

A percentage can be mathematically correct yet evidentially misleading if the denominator does not represent the correct cargo population being assessed.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcca ONE CALCULATION \u2013 TWO RESULTS<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Suppose the shipping documents declare a cargo shipment of 1,000 units<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Upon arrival, the surveyor records 850 units physically present and available for inspection<\/strong>, of which 50 units show signs of transport-related damage<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two calculations produce two different percentages:<\/span><\/p>\n

Calculated against the documented quantity:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

50 \u00f7 1,000 = 5.0%<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Calculated against the physically verified quantity:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

50 \u00f7 850 \u2248 5.88%<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The actual loss remains 50 units<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The percentage changes because the reference population has changed<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, which denominator is appropriate for the claim?<\/span><\/p>\n

The answer cannot be determined by mathematics alone.<\/span><\/p>\n

1,000 units<\/strong> is the quantity stated in the commercial documentation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, 850 units<\/strong> represents only the portion of the cargo physically present and verified at the time of the survey.<\/span><\/p>\n

The physically verified quantity is not automatically the appropriate denominator for the entire claim<\/strong>. Its relevance depends on what population the figure represents and how it relates to the original total cargo quantity.<\/span><\/p>\n

A calculation can be mathematically accurate while still being evidentially misleading<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udce6 ONE CARGO SHIPMENT DOES NOT HAVE JUST ONE NUMBER<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Throughout the transportation process, a cargo shipment may generate several different quantities at different stages:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Declared Quantity:<\/strong> Stated in the Bill of Lading, Packing List and other commercial documents.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Loaded Quantity:<\/strong> Recorded through loading records, tally sheets or other evidence at the loading port.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Discharged Quantity:<\/strong> Recorded during discharge and cargo delivery operations at the discharge port.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Surveyed Quantity:<\/strong> The portion of cargo physically accessible and verifiable at the time of inspection.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Damaged Quantity:<\/strong> The portion determined to be damaged based on the applicable survey criteria.<\/span><\/p>\n

These figures may reconcile in a straightforward and properly controlled shipment.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, when a claim arises, they may also differ significantly<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The fundamental principle is:<\/span><\/p>\n

One figure must not be automatically substituted for another.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Eac<\/span>h figure represents a specific operational stage, a specific cargo population and a specific evidential basis<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd0d VERIFYING THE DENOMINATOR<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Before including a loss percentage in a formal survey report, a professional surveyor should establish at least four key criteria:<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Source of the Data<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Where does the baseline come from?<\/span><\/p>\n

Is it supported by an independent tally sheet, weighing records, loading documentation, or merely a declared commercial quantity?<\/span><\/p>\n

The source of a figure determines the level of reliance that can reasonably be placed upon it and the scope within which it can be used.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Operational Scope<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Which stage of the transportation process does the figure represent?<\/span><\/p>\n

Does it represent the quantity at loading, discharge, delivery, or at the time of survey?<\/span><\/p>\n

A figure has full meaning only when considered within its proper operational context.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Population Changes<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Has the cargo been moved, segregated, partially delivered, mixed with other stock, repacked, or otherwise altered before the survey?<\/span><\/p>\n

Any change to the cargo population may affect whether the quantity physically verified at the time of survey can properly be used as the reference population.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Population Compatibility<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Does the damaged quantity \u2014 the numerator<\/strong> \u2014 actually originate from the same cargo population represented by the denominator<\/strong>?<\/span><\/p>\n

This is particularly important when the survey takes place after discharge or delivery operations have already commenced.<\/span><\/p>\n

For example:<\/span><\/p>\n

If 50 damaged packages are identified among 850 packages present at the warehouse<\/strong>, while 150 sound packages have already been delivered<\/strong>, the surveyor must not automatically equate the physically inspected population with the original total cargo quantity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udea2 LATE SURVEY AND THE FRAGMENTED CARGO POPULATION<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

A delayed survey can create significant evidential challenges.<\/span><\/p>\n

By the time the surveyor attends, the cargo may have already:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Been discharged from the vessel;<\/span>
\n\u2022 Been transferred to a warehouse;<\/span>
\n\u2022 Been removed from the container;<\/span>
\n\u2022 Been mixed with existing stock;<\/span>
\n\u2022 Or been delivered to the consignee in multiple batches.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, the surveyor may only have access to part of the original cargo population<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

A discrepancy between the physical inventory and the shipping documents does not automatically establish that the quantity stated on the Bill of Lading was already short or inaccurate at the loading port<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, a technical survey report must clearly distinguish between:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 What the documents declare.<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 What the operational records show.<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 What was physically presented and verified.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Without this distinction, figures from different stages of the transportation process may be combined into a single calculation \u2014 mathematically correct, but potentially misleading when assessing the evidential basis of the claim<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2693 THE CORE OBJECTIVE OF A SURVEY<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

The purpose of an independent survey is not to force inconsistent figures to match artificially.<\/span><\/p>\n

The objective is to establish a transparent, logical and verifiable relationship between the different figures<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Where documentary records and physical findings differ, the credibility of a survey report depends on clearly establishing:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 The actual scope of the physical inspection;<\/span>
\n\u2022 The source of each figure;<\/span>
\n\u2022 The cargo population represented by each figure;<\/span>
\n\u2022 And the evidence supporting each figure.<\/span><\/p>\n

The key question is not simply:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat is the percentage of loss?\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It should also be:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhat cargo population does this percentage describe, and what evidence supports that figure?\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Because when the denominator changes<\/strong>, the assessment of the claim may change.<\/span><\/p>\n

And when the assessment changes, the commercial position of the parties may change accordingly<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcd0 SURVEY IS NOT JUST ABOUT CALCULATION<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Professional surveying is not simply about calculating a percentage.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is about ensuring that every percentage carries the meaning it is intended to convey \u2014 and that every figure is supported by an appropriate evidential basis.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\ude9b\u2693EVERY GATEWAY \u2013 ONE SPEED<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udccd\u00a0Ho Chi Minh City \u2794 Ba Ria \u2013 Vung Tau \u2794 Cai Mep \u2794 Quy Nhon \u2794 Da Nang \u2794 Hai Phong\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u26a1\u00a04 HOURS: On-site Attendance\u00a0\u26a1\u00a012 HOURS: Survey Completion\u00a0\u26a1\u00a024 HOURS: Certificate Issuance<\/span><\/p>\n

CONTACT INFORMATION<\/strong><\/span>
\nVIET MARINE CONTROL JOINT STOCK COMPANY \u2013 VM CONTROL<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udccd Address: 1831\/10\/9 Huynh Tan Phat Street, Quarter 2, Nha Be Commune, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam<\/span>
\n\ud83d\udcde Hotline: +84 981 600 440 \/ +84 918 114 742<\/span>
\n\ud83c\udf10 Website:\u00a0www.vietmarinecontrol.com.vn<\/span>
\n\ud83d\udce7 Email: survey@vietmarinecontrol.com.vn<\/span>
\n\ud83d\udd35 Linkedin:\u00a0www.linkedin.com\/in\/vm-control-234252386<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A percentage can be mathematically correct yet still be evidentially misleading if the denominator does not accurately represent the cargo population being assessed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4273,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4274"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4274\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4275,"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4274\/revisions\/4275"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4273"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vietmarinecontrol.com.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}